Project Portugal 2030

Summary

The shipping industry is entering a challenging decade, as the sector will have to reduce its overall emissions while the demand for transport continues to increase. There will not be a unique path, and the timing for deployment of the cheapest measures will be crucial in the coming years. For atmospheric shipping emissions reduction, the use of different fuels is mandatory, along with other measures regarding energy efficiency and the implementation of more policies. To help understand the best feasible measures to lower the emissions on the Iberian Peninsula, SHIPSUSTAIR will estimate future emissions based on different scenarios according to what may be feasible until 2050 and assess their impacts on climate, air quality, ecosystems and health, as well as the costs associated with the impacts and with the measures applied for the emissions reduction specifically for Portugal and Spain, which, as far as known, has not been performed. Also, the study will use the best available methods, including STEAM, the most accurate and reliable method to estimate shipping emissions, with recent updates (including methanol and ammonia as fuels), providing the development of a methodology that can be used for future monitoring. Thus, this is a pioneer study, which will be critically important in the decision-making for future policies regarding GHG emission abatement that are further needed (DGRM - Directorate-General for Natural Resources, Safety and Maritime Services letter of interest attached). Accordingly, the objectives of this project are: Globally: 1. Develop a methodology for the monitoring and forecasting of shipping emissions and knowledge on the impacts of decreasing ship-related emissions, using different scenarios for emissions reduction, on climate, air quality, ecosystems and health, and the associated economic burden, for Portugal and Spain. A particular case study will be performed for cruise ships, given their importance in the study area. 2. Contribute to a supported development of preventive and control measures in case of high impacts on climate, air quality, ecosystems and health due to shipping emissions. 3. Support environmental policy through strong dissemination of results to the entities responsible for shipping emissions management and the shipping industry, to national and international scientific communities and to the general public, thus also helping to support environmental education. Specifically: 4. Inventory emissions from maritime traffic between 2008 and 2023 (the most recent available data) within 400 km of Portugal and Spain's coasts, namely considering CO, CO2, SOx, NOx, and PM2.5 (subdivided into EC, OC, sulphates, and ash). 5. Forecast atmospheric emissions for 2030, 2040 and 2050 using updated STEAM based on different scenarios for emissions reduction and compare with the results obtained for 2008 (to compare with IMO targets) and 2023. 6. Evaluate the impact of the atmospheric emissions reduction in 2030, 2040 and 2050 compared to those of 2008 and 2023, over the different projected scenarios, on: 6.1 the emissions of GHGs and other pollutants (air quality) of the Iberian Peninsula. 6.2 S and N deposition, and possible reduction in critical loads, and the variation in O3 concentrations, as well as the associated costs related to the impacts on ecosystems. 6.3 human health on the Iberian Peninsula, as well as their associated costs. 7. Estimate the costs of the application of the measures.